You know the drill: AR picks the Oscar winners

If you’ve been paying attention to my blog, you know I do this  and have done this for years. Ignore, read, use it when you’re placing your bets at an Oscar party. But here is who *I*, amateur Oscar “pundit” thing will win.

One thing to keep in mind:

It never fails to amuse me if people ask me if I’ve seen all the movies. Well, no. I haven’t. I’m not a real movie critic. I don’t get screeners. I just pay attention to movie news and who wins what awards as well as what people in the know are saying about the academy itself.  Think of it as the  Nate Silver approach which accounts for a lot when the Oscar race is so early. Upsets become harder to predict simply because the people that vote have less time to decide and are more likely to do what everyone else is doing. Got it? Good.

Here we go:

Best Picture:

When nominations came out, Lincoln looked like a statistical lock based on early precedent. Since then, Argo has won all the significant awards that signal Oscar: PGA, DGA, WGA, yadda, yadda, yadda.

That said, be surprised if Argo doesn’t become the first movie since Driving Miss Daisy to win best pic without a director’s nomination.

Will Win: Argo

Could still possibly in theory still win: Lincoln…but it won’t. Same for Zero Dark Thirty (TOO CONTROVERSIAL) and Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein won’t be able to pull a Shakespere in Love, making this the first movie since Sunset Boulevard to have all four acting nominations but NOT win best picture.)

Best Director:

So, when Speilberg takes this one but not best picture I think Ben Affleck – snubbed here – will hold up his Oscar and say “Hey Spielberg, how do you like ‘dem apples!”

Will Win: Steven Spielberg – because it’s been awhile and Lincoln won’t win best picture. A relatively “rare” split.

Could Win: Ang Lee. I actually think this race seems like a toss up but I don’t know if everyone voting actually SAW Life of Pi. Plus, he’s won fairly recently. The only other possibility seems to be David O. Russell and I get the impression nobody likes him. (We KNOW Lily Tomlin isn’t voting for him. Google those two.)

Caution: Take a look at the Nate Silver article I linked to. This is a category that is too unstable for anything to really be considered a “shock,” at least from my perspective.

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix is one of the few actors working today that can convince you he’s right there in the room with you, wacking off creepily, humping windows, contorting his posture and everything else to create a horrifying lead character.

Unfortunately for him, Daniel Day-Lewis is one of the actors that has this ability and he played an important historical figure in a movie that was a bit more suited to traditional academy tastes.

Will Win: Do you have to even ask?

Best Actress: You know how I mentioned that having the Oscar race early decreases the odds of an upset? This category is a perfect example as once a Jennifer Lawrence win seemed telegraphed, more and more people started pointing out that Emmanuelle Riva has a real shot at becoming the oldest winner yet. I am assuming, perhaps cynically, that there was not enough time for her to gain momentum here. Lawrence is a safer bet, but Riva could be an upset. (If the Oscars were still in late March? I might even put my money on Riva.)

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence.

Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva. I’m not seeing Jessica Chastain as a factor.

Supporting Actor:

This is a tough, tough, call made up of former Oscar winners. I’m not noticing a lot of consensus among critics either. So let’s play the elimination game:

Robert DeNiro – Sentimental favorite? Sure. But he hasn’t won anything for this role yet. Odds are low.

Alan Arkin – Won fairly recently in an “upset” that frankly, I called. Like DeNiro, I am pretty sure he hasn’t won anything for this role – at least not outside of a critics award and critics don’t vote.

Christoph Waltz – He won Supporting Actor just two years ago. He barely snuck in here over co-stars.

Philip Seymour Hoffman – A contender? In theory. But most of the support for The Master has been in critics awards and as I sad above…critics don’t vote.

That leaves us with Tommy Lee Jones. Grumpy at the Golden Globes? Sure. But I think he’s gotta be the winner.

Will Win: Jones.

Could Win: In theory, anyone else. But I’m going to go with Arkin because, well…I was right before.

Supporting Actress:

Get ready for more of Anne Hathaway’s faux modesty.

Will Win: Yeah, you know this one.

Original Screenplay:

In theory, the race is between Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty and Quentin Tarantino for Django. But something is telling me Michael Haneke could take it for Amour. There seems to be support for this film among voters and at the very least, its less controversial than the other two.

Will Win: What the hell - Michael Haneke for Amour.

Could Win: Mark Boal. Or Tarantino, I suppose. But given that the Academy thought Forest Gump was a better picture than Pulp Fiction? I don’t want to give them that much credit.

Adapted Screenplay:

The race is between Tony Kushner’s Lincoln and Chris Terrio’s Argo. Momentum is on Terrio’s side.

Will Win: Chris Terrio

Could Win: Tony Kushner.

Now if you excuse me, I have Oscar drinking to prepare for.

Good night, and good luck. (Oh shit, that was 2006.)