Non-Running Commentary: Oscar Nominations

I continue to do this for the 2-3 people that care.

In 11 hours we’ll see what a shitty grasp I’ve got on the race this year. Right?

Right.

Again: I am picking the major acting categories along with director and best picture. This Includes an alternate pick (i.e. – one likely to be swapped with one of the predictions and a spoiler which you can consider an “upset” pick.)

Best Supporting Actor:

Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin -Argo
Christoph Waltz -Django Unchained
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman -The Master

Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Spoiler: Dwight Henry -Beasts of the Southern Wild

Thoughts: Jones, Arkin, Hoffman, and De Niro seem like safe picks. It’s that fifth slot that seems like a toss up. Hell, some pundits are saying Matthew McConaughey for fucking Magic Mike could be a factor.

Yeah, I don’t see that happening. What I DO know is that Django has good momentum. Unless there is a split between Waltz and DiCaprio (and Samuel L Jackson for that matter), I tend to see SOMEONE from that movie getting in.

However, this would be the PERFECT spot to recognize Dwight Henry though I feel like its a long shot.

Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams- The Master
Maggie Smith -The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alternate: Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy
Spoiler: Ann Dowd – Compliance

Thoughts: Anne Hathaway has won the damn thing already so who really cares who else gets in, right?
I’m most unsure about the Maggie Smith slot,and something tells me either John Hawkes and Helen Hunt get nominated or neither do. Which brings me to…

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman -Les Miserables
Denzel Washington -Flight
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix -The Master
Alternate: Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Spoiler: Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour

Thoughts: Here is the thing: Daniel Day Lewis already has it wrapped up. I’ll go on record as saying I think he’s the only actual lock in the field. I mean…sure. You can go by the SAG, GG nods which would make Phoenix likely to be left out. And that would be a safer bet than what I’m suggesting because The Master did not really gain the traction it should, despite once again ending up a BA contender against someone who has it locked down.

But you know what? Someone is going to get snubbed and based on subject matter…I’m predicting Cooper would be the most likely to go down.

But what do I know.

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence- Silver Linings Playbook
Naomi Watts -The Impossible
Jessica Chastain -Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard -Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis -Beasts of the Southern Wild
Alternate: Emmanuelle Riva -Amour
Spoiler: Rachel Weisz -Deep Blue Sea

Thoughts: I think the first four are in for sure. It’s that 5th slot I’m not sure about. Either Oscar acknowledges an 85 year old or makes a 9 year old the youngest ever best actress nomination. Which way do they choose?

(I’d be awesome if they both got in. Maybe those first four aren’t as solid as I think…)

Best Director:
Ben Affleck – Argo
Steven Spielberg -Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee -Life of Pi
Tom Hooper- Les Miserables
Alternate: Quentin Tarantino -Django Unchained
Spoiler: David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook, PT Anderson – The Master

Thoughts: I’m going by the DGA. I think if someone breaks up the party, it’ll be Tarantino with either Hooper or Lee most vulnerable. There is a shot Russell could slip in there.

Why am I giving PT Anderson a spoiler slot? Wishful thinking, perhaps. But mostly its because his “bigger” efforts have traditionally done well with the Oscars. Hell, Magnolia wasn’t any MORE accessible than The Master…right?

Best Picture:
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master
Alternate: Moonrise Kingdom
Spoiler: Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Thoughts: There are a lot of things that make this category tricky this year.
For one, we could very well only have 5 films. Nobody knows.
For another, Oscar ballots were due SO early this year that there is a good chance some of the movies that came out late in the game (Django! Zero Dark Thirty!) didn’t get the attention they’d need to make the cut. So really ANYTHING could happen here.

So here is how I see it:

Lincoln is the BP front runner. It just is. At this point I don’t see how it loses. (Oh, a movie about an American president didn’t get a BAFTA directing nod? Yeah, that means nothing.)

Argo and Zero Dark Thirty should be locks. (Assuming people actually watched that screener of ZDT…)

Life of Pi, Les Mis, Silver Linings? Again, hitting the right notes – getting the right recognition. There is a good chance that could be IT for the nominees.

But I don’t think it will be. Django picked up momentum quickly.

The last three? Pure speculation. If you’re the betting sort, I think Beasts and Amour are safer bets than The Master which may very well walk with nothing other than a pair of supporting nods. (Again, I am going by PTA’s strong performance with the Oscar crowd in the past.)

I see another scenario where Amour, Beasts and Master get nothing and Moonrise gets in, but nothing else.

It’ll be interesting.