AR’s Obligatory Oscar Post
Look: I barely remember I have a blog lately. To that end, I forgot to post Oscar nominations this year. I know, you’re so upset by that.
But the thing is, this Oscar prediction bit is another one of my stupid, worthless hobbies like running and taking pictures of road signs and I’ve actually spoken Oscar with some of you so let’s just get on with it, shall we?
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
Tree of Life
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Commentary: Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know The Artist has this sewn up. Why? Who the hell knows. Harvey Weinstein? A year where Oscar voters didn’t feel like going with dark material? But given the precursors, it looks pretty anti-climatic here.
Looks.
If you remember 2005, it seemed like Brokeback Mountain had it sewn up. Until, of course, there was a lot of buzz about how people didn’t REALLY want it to win. Still, pundits pushed on pointing out that it was a lock…with only Roger Ebert having the foresight to point out that it wasn’t going to happen. Instead, we got Crash: a rather trite look at racism. A well acted piece to be sure. A decent watch? No argument there. But in no way anything anyone thought of as “Oscar worthy.”
Enter The Help.
We’ve got a film that did well at the box office, featured Black women, and generally…well…yeah.
Do I think The Help will upset here? No. But frankly, I wouldn’t rule it out either. For all the accusations of racism, it felt more like a “Driving Miss Daisy” (Best Picture Winner in 89-90) sort of movie than a “Crash.” What do I mean by that? Racism is a PART of what is otherwise a character driven story. And in this case, not a particularly well written one. I don’t think it is a particularly happy story (can anyone REALLY argue it’s a happy ending? There was nothing happy about that ending and frankly, the White “protagonist” never felt particularly noble), but it was a commercially viable one. I don’t think that tends to be the direction the Oscars go these days but…if you’re going to put money on an upset? This category is a good bet.
(For the record: I’m not entirely sure what I thought of The Help. I was prepared for the worst, but was largely…eh. The acting was solid, the story was a mess, but it didn’t inspire the kind of anger I expected it would.)
Will Win: The Arist
Could Win: The Help
Darkhorse: The Descendants (I only mention this because it was the early front runner in this category, but it peaked too soon.)
Best Actor:
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
George Clooney,The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
Commentary: How nice of the Academy to finally nominate Gary Oldman again. Too bad he won’t win. Thanks to hard lobbying and charm, Dujardin seems like a lock. Clooney might still have the votes to pull it off, but being that he won Best Supporting Actor for Syriana (and that win was REALLY for his writing/directing in Good Night and Good Luck), I wouldn’t expect he’d win again so soon.
I’ve seen some chatter that Pitt could pull off a win but he is firmly in third place from my perspective. (You know, amateur Oscar pundit so take it for what its worth.)
Will Win: Dujardin
Could Win: Clooney
Best Actress
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep,The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Commentary: Remember Doubt? Streep played a bitchy, manipulative nun. I can’t remember specifics. But I DO remember Viola Davis was on screen for about 5 minutes and was jaw dropplingly good. She took that limited screen time and served notice, and she’s gotten some decent work since that time. And frankly, I think this is why she’s got this category locked down. Not many knew who she was and she took a small part and earned an Oscar nomination, losing to the unstoppable train that was Penelope Cruz that year. The fact is, everyone knows Streep. We know she’s bad ass. And frankly, Oscar voters know she’s won before. Viola Davis did her best with a script better suited to a Lifetime movie and makes the story about her. A divisive story, but one that probably provoked more of a reaction than Margaret Thatcher’s.
Will Win: Davis
Could Win: Streep
Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Commentary: Yeah, Plummer will win. A case could be made for Von Sydow but because the Academy didn’t bother to nominate Albert Brooks for Drive? I don’t see Plummer losing.
Will Win: Plummer
Could Win: Von Sydow
Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Commentary: Octavia Spencer has been around for awhile, mostly in TV. As has often been the case with the supporting category, her first huge break will get her an Oscar, for better or worse. This category probably SHOULD go to Jessica Chastain who brought a lot of depth to what could have been a throw away role, but the Spencer win is not undeserved.
Will Win: Spencer
Could Win: Chastain
Director
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Alexander Payne,The Descendants
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Commentary: As DGA goes, so does Oscar.
Will Win: Hanazavicius
Could Win: My gut says NO ONE ELSE, but Scorsese is the closest to a runner up. And you know his track record at the Oscars…
Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
JC Chandor, Margin Call
Commentary: Woody Allen has this locked up. Say it. Out loud. Does that sound right to you? Of course it doesn’t. He’s been nominated for many, many Oscars…mostly for writing. And he rarely shows up. If people were more excited about The Artist, I’d say that’d be your winner…but they’re just not. So Woody gets it. I think. Be prepared for an “upset.”
Will Win: Allen
Could Win: Hazanavicius
Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash,The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Commentary: Alexander Payne follows his 2004-2005 Oscar for his Sideways with an adaptation of Kaui Hart Hemmings’ novel…and he’ll probably win for it. (Along with Dean Pelton!!!) For all the backlash against this film, it’s a legitimate win. He worked closely with Hemmings (she’s even in the movie!) to create the atmosphere and the story, while perhaps lacking some of the punch of his previous works, is bittersweet but absorbing, something that I think will carry it through the backlash. Moneyball seems to be the runner up…but is Sorkin really going to walk with an Oscar two years in a row? Really? No. I don’t see it happening. But I’ve been wrong before in this category, particularly when it comes to assuming the academy will do things like reward an interesting story with George Clooney in it. (I’m still bitter about the screenplay win for Precious, which I maintain was one of the most disgustingly manipulative films I’ve ever seen, perverting the source material for maximum shock value without a hint of subtlety vs. Jason Reitman’s thoughtful adaptation of Walter Kim’s story…)
Will Win: Payne, Rash (DEAN PELTON!!!), Faxton
Could Win:Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Stan Chervin
For better commentary, as always, I suggest Sasha Stone’s Awards Daily.
I’m glad you decided to write this. I’m always a fan of your Oscar posts. I wish I could offer some predictions of my own, but I have barely seen any of the nominated movies. I think the only ones I’ve seen that are nominated for anything are Moneyball, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, and Bridesmaids. I don’t really see any of those winning many, if any, Oscars this year. Maybe The Descendants will come away with a few. I’ll watch the show and see how your predictions turn out!
Huge misconception I’ll clear up: you don’t actually have to SEE anything to predict the Oscars. I always laugh when people say “BUT I DIDN’T SEE ANYTHING THIS YEAR!” as if it matters. You just have to get a feel for how Oscar voters are voting, which is easy thanks to the power of TEH INTRAWEBS. Seeing stuff just helps with the analysis, especially when you keep in mind that 1. most voters are old, White men who aren’t hip 2. Studio rigamarole (lobbying, interviews) plays a huge part and can probably hurt you more than it helps you (see Eddie Murphy losing for Dreamgirls due to being a giant dickhole and appearing in a movie where he dressed in a fat suit) 3. Oscar pundits and critics set the trends. Even though these guys aren’t hip themselves, they have to look to somewhere to find out what went on in the movies they didn’t watch.
That’s your useless factoid for the day
I have to say, I think this is a pretty accurate prediction. Based on what I’ve heard, the Artist is a slam dunk for best picture. Part of me actually does want to see it despite my usual couldn’t-care-less attitude about most of the nominations. I also really just like to say “Jean Dujardin”.
It does have a nice ring to it, yes?
How could it NOT be The Artist? (That said, I think your Brokeback/Crash analogy could be spot-on. But Brokeback was at least supposedly controversial, while The Artist is about, I dunno, movies and art and stuff? I’m seeing it on Saturday but man, it seems like a given.)
It would crack me up if Sorkin won for Moneyball, but a) I think the universe would explode if he won twice in a row, like, where would his ego fit? and b) the writing of that script was such a freaking mess from way back in the Soderbergh days. I’m still amazed that movie got made at all.
The “controversy” is that The Artist won’t be very memorable in the grand scheme of things. Think Shakespere in Love in ’98-99. Pundits are freaking. But seriously, it’s like…The Artist is a 99% sure thing. It won’t lose, but if it DID…that’s how it will shake out.
Agreed re: graf 2. Moneyball ultimately suffers from the fact that the script changed hands so I just CAN’T see it unseating the Payne, et al.
I have some early draft of the script from my old job (I think it’s Zaillian pre-Soderbergh) and just dug it up the other night after watching the movie, and MAN. It’s very, very different. It still has the Bill James Greek chorus trick.
I’m really curious about The Descendents. A coworker saw it a few weeks ago and absolutely raved about how great Clooney was… sigh…
I really liked it. Though I love Alexander Payne and Clooney has just gotten better with age.
I felt the same way about The Help. I wanted to hate it, and ended up enjoying it. I agree that the acting was good, and I felt there was some good character development (but surprisingly not by Emma Stone), and it had both characters you love and love to hate, which makes it easy to get wrapped up in it. But yeah, the writing was meh.
Also, I think I’ve won 2 or 3 years in a row at the ballot contest at my sis-in-law’s Oscars Party, and some of my family members really seem to want to take me down. There’s been some trash talk on Facebook. They keep saying “we’re getting ready for the party! we’re seeing the movies!” and I keep telling them that’s not how you “study” for your Oscars predictions. And that all of my “secrets” are right there on the internet.
Yep. I REALLY wanted to hate it but damn, it’s an absorbing (if flawed) watch. Emma Stone kind of just blended in, though frankly – I think that works in favor of the argument that her character isn’t supposed to be any kind of savior. She struck me as a typical sheltered kid that went to college and wanted to run off and do all sorts of things right away and she found an angle to do it, for personal reasons. And she felt guilty for it (she wasn’t dumb, just naive like a typical 22 year old), but at the end of the day…nobody really cares since her guilt isn’t going to do shit. (Exactly why they encourage her to leave town. Her being there isn’t helping!) The woman who raised her is still dead, and the future for Minnie and Adaleen ain’t exactly cheery. But yeah. Clearly a reason it only got acting nominations.
And YES. I love when people tell me they have to “prepare” for the Oscar party by watching the movies…NO. Just…read. It’s not that hard. Though watching the movies does give you some fine drink/food ideas as Nicki is bringing a shit pie.
I don’t know anything about most of these movies, but I’ll memorize this post and use it to sound all smart and shit when people are talking about the Oscars these next few days. MKAY?
OKAY WUT MOVIE DID U THINK WAS GOOD? I WILL MAKE IT A BOLDED QUESTION AT THE END OF MY BLOG
I just saw The Help yesterday and neither me nor the fiancé were induced in to anger as we expected we would be. (Except for that scene where Minnie is chowing down on chicken. Did we really need that?) I didn’t love it, but didn’t hate it mainly because of Davis and Butler’s performances.
I have yet to see any of the other best picture nominees aside from The Descendants (which I didn’t really pay attention to) and Moneyball. I thought Moneyball was well adapted, but there were just too many scenes of Billy Beane/Brad Pitt driving around in his truck and being mopey. If I wanted to stare at Pitt’s profile, I’d do some Google Image searching.
The fact that Moneyball scored a screenplay nod is still a bit surprising considering HOW MANY TIMES THE SCRIPT CHANGED HANDS. A movie will suffer for that – see also, the filler you mentioned.
I CRINGED at the chicken moment. And most of the dialogue between Skeeter and her mom. Lifetime movie shit, saved by strong acting. Sadly, this is sometimes the formula to an Oscar win (ORDINARY PEOPLE!!!!), though I really don’t think The Artist has anything to worry about.
I really enjoyed the Descendants, but I love Alexander Payne. Kaui Hart Hemmings used to have a blog up where she talked about her kid pulling Barbie dolls apart among other things…she’s funny!
I agree with your pics. I loved both The Artist and Midnight In Paris. I know The Artist will win a lot, but I hope Midnight In Paris gets recognized for something.
Yes! Screenplay chances are good for Woody. Whether he shows up is a different story entirely…
I only know Oscar Mayer….B O L O…you know the rest. http://fatguyinlittleshorts.wordpress.com/